Original Lecture Date and Time: March 26, 2008 at 2PM
Location: School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences
Speaker: David B. South

About the Speaker

David South is a professor of Forestry at Auburn University. He has received several awards for his research in forest nurseries and plantation establishment. In 1996, he made a 5-year bet on the price of wood with Dr. Julian Simon and in March 27, 1999, he offered a $1000 bet that was published in “The Economist” magazine. The following year, he made a 10-year bet on the price of oil with Dr. Zargos Madjd-Sadjadi.
www.ag.auburn.edu/aaes/communications/highlights/summer99/south.html

About the Lecture

In this lecture, Dr. South introduces the concept of the ZAP religion. He claims that many economists and journalists follow the teachings of Julian Simon (author of “The Ultimate Resource” and winner of a 10-year bet on the price of 5 metals). ZAP stands for the Zero Asymptote Price curve - which suggests that the cost of all commodities will decline in price (i.e. constant dollars) over time. Followers of the ZAP religion believe that 50 years from now, the price of oil, wood, and energy will be cheaper than it is today (e.g. 1 hour of labor will purchase more kilowatts in 2058 than in 2008). South provides several quotes from members of the ZAP religion. He concludes by showing that “experts” can be wrong when they attempt to make accurate long-term predictions.

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